It's interesting to see how many UK premier league football clubs have rapidly succumbed to outbreaks of the virus. They already had more restrictions and protective procedures, as there's a massive financial and competitive incentive for keeping their players fit to play. But, still, they are going down like the plague! Let's hope the symptoms of this new wave are relatively mild for most, otherwise, with Boris Johnson following his usual clown-like, incompetent, deaf-to-science, too-little-too-late approach, we tend to look a bit stuffed!
"systematic review and meta analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions has found mask wearing the most effective." - reported in The Guardian.
"Mask-wearing is the single most effective public health measure at tackling Covid, according to the first global study of its kind, which found that the measure was linked to a 53% fall in the incidence of the disease."
"Vaccines are safe and effective and saving lives around the world. But most do not confer 100% protection, most countries have not vaccinated everyone, and it is not yet known if jabs will prevent future transmission of emerging coronavirus variants."
While I fully support the wearing of masks in enclosed public places, there is a wide range of data from various scientific sources as to their effectiveness, particularly with regard to how much they protect the wearer as opposed to other people. A standard pale blue mask is not going to reduce the wearer's risk by 60%. There are just too many gaps around the edges. The greater protection is to other people, through a significant amount of the wearer's breath going straight into the mask which traps a fair amount of potentially harmful molecules.
@jimwarnerbka Indeed. The figures in the graphic posted above should be taken with a pinch of salt, because there are many variable factors: type of mask, distance, variant of virus, air temperature/humidity, immune system of person, etc, etc. I think they are just ballpark rough averages to give an idea of the relative reduction in risk from mask-wearing. For those who are forced to spend time in crowded areas, and want more protection, I would recommend the FFP2 or FFP3 masks. These are single-use and quite expensive, but you can get them at UK pharmacies such as Boots and Lloyds the Chemists.
Self-explanatory graph. (Another figure, reported today, which might seem clearer in absolute terms: 1 in 55 people in England, and 1 in 45 people in Wales had Coronavirus in the week ending 16 October - Office for National Statistics.)
-Restrictions were removed when Delta variant was already on ascendant.
-Masks are thus less likely to be worn in UK than in Europe.
-Also mentions that vaccine rollout has stalled in UK. Europe & other countries now rate more highly on full vaccination levels. UK no longer in top 10.
UK is doing worse than European countries - much higher levels of infection.
That seems to me like asking: "Prime Imbecile driving at 100mph into brick wall - why is the outcome not good for the car?"
Still, at least the article does helpfully point out that "The more virus there is about, the more chances there are for it to break through the defences of vaccines, reach vulnerable people and put pressure on health services." And: "It's true that the more infections are circulating, the higher the risk some people will end up seriously ill, even when most have been vaccinated."Maybe someone should inform Boris "the idiot" Johnson.
There's some good news about Covid in this article that cites Dame Sarah Gilbert, the Oxford vaccine creator. But it's a bit of a mixed bag. The difference from the opinions we're typically exposed to is that it comes from someone who really knows what she's talking about, and not some pundit or dubious "government adviser".
I'm posting whole thing, as you have to register, etc, at the Telegraph to see it all online. It's from a few days ago (link at end):-
Nowhere left for Covid to go to mutate into a deadly variant, says Oxford vaccine creator.
Covid is unlikely to mutate into a much deadlier variant because there “aren’t many places for the virus to go”, the lead scientist behind the Oxford vaccine has said.
Dame Sarah Gilbert said that viruses tended to become less virulent over time as they spread through a population which was becoming more immune.
Although Dame Sarah said some genetic drift was to be expected, she said Covid-19 would eventually become like other seasonal coronaviruses which cause the common cold and respiratory infections.
Speaking on a Royal Society of Medicine webinar about variants on Wednesday, Dame Sarah said: “The virus can’t completely mutate because its spike protein has to interact with the ACE2 receptor on the surface of the human cell, in order to get inside that cell.
“If it changes its spike protein so much that it can’t interact with that receptor, then it’s not going to be able to get inside the cell. So there aren’t very many places for the virus to go to have something that will evade immunity but still be a really infectious virus.”
She added: “We normally see that viruses become less virulent as they circulate more easily and there is no reason to think we will have a more virulent version of Sars-CoV-2.
“We tend to see slow genetic drift of the virus and there will be gradual immunity developing in the population as there is to all the other seasonal coronaviruses. There are four of them and they’ve been circulating for decades and we’re not even aware of them.
“So we already live with four different human coronaviruses that we don’t really ever think about very much and eventually Sars-CoV-2 will become one of those. The question of how long it’s going to take to get there and what measures we’re going to have to take to manage it in the meantime.”
So far, virus variants which looked like they might be more virulent and evade immunity have been out-competed by the delta variant, which is more infectious.
Keeping an eye on beta and lambda variants
Experts are still concerned about the beta and lambda variants, but neither has managed to get a strong foothold in Britain.
Professor Sharon Peacock, the executive director of the Covid-19 UK Genomics Consortium, which monitors variants for the Government, also told the webinar: “It’s watch and wait, but delta is top of the list and other variants are not particularly concerning at the moment.
“It has been pretty quiet since delta emerged and it would be nice to think there won’t be any new variants of concern. If I was pushed to predict, I think there will be new variants emerging over time and I think there is still quite a lot of road to travel down with this virus.”
Prof Sharon Peacock said vaccinating people remains the best way to fight Covid and prevent the emergence of new variants
Prof Peacock said that it was important to genetically sequence people who became ill after travelling to check that new variants were not being imported into Britain as they were the “canary in the coal mine”.
However, she said that vaccinating as many people as possible around the world was the best way to prevent the emergence of worrying mutations.
“If we don’t vaccinate people and there is uncontrolled transmission and infection, then that is the right training ground for the virus to really emerge. That is a real variant of concern,” she added.
“If we don’t have very much infection, then the virus doesn’t have much chance to mutate. So vaccination of the world is not only the morally right thing to do, but the strategically right thing to do if we are going to protect the world. Sequencing travellers are the canary in the coal mine as they will be where new variants are emerging.”
Prof Peacock also said she had not completely ruled out that the virus had been engineered or had leaked from a lab.
“There is reason to think the virus did emerge from an animal host,” she said. “I haven’t seen any definitive evidence it is an engineered virus or escaped. But what this virus has taught me is to be humble when I’m wrong, and I’ve been wrong quite a few times and have had to become nimble in changing my mind.
“So if further evidence comes along that shows the virus as being engineered, I would be willing to consider that. But at the moment, in my view it has arisen from an animal.”
On Biden mandating vaccinations for federal employees, & the hysterical reaction to this from some - it's weird to me that those who complain about having their individual liberties constrained (eg requirement to get vaccinated) seem unconcerned about trampling on the freedoms of others (eg the freedom to not be forced to work with those who pose a greater risk of infection). Liberty for me, me, me, me, and not for others - aka narrow selfishness.
Dumb and Dumber. I'm already on a "criticise Glenn Greenwald" roll in another thread, but there's really no excuse for this, from someone so influential as Glenn.
Firstly, there's no "sustained isolation" (as Greenwald so dishonestly puts it) in NZ because they've been completely Covid-free for the last 6 months, precisely because their precautionary approach has been so effective. (They've had a sum total of only 26 deaths from Covid since the start. Compare that with the US and UK). There's also massive popular support in NZ for the approach taken.
The new temporary NZ lockdown is just 3 days (7 in the area affected) - not "sustained isolation" - and of course they're allowed to talk to their neighbours (that's a stupid mischaracterisation, by Blumenthal and Greenwald, of the usual social distancing advice).
And finally, NZ doesn't have a "President". It has a Prime Minister. A basic fact you'd expect a "journalist" to get right.
@Palladium you've opened my eyes to Glenn. Glenn, who I'd almost forgotten about if it wasn't for whatever that was involving slapping with Brazilian journalist Augusto Nunes in late 2019, might have gotten so disheartened by the limo-left that in jumping off the ship he landed near a far-right ship.
I did keep up with Glenn Greenwald and Jeremy Scahill, too, in the early noughts. I see that he wrote a book called Great American Hypocrites: Toppling the Big Myths of Republican Politics. Wonder what that's like? It's 2008 so that's just about or slightly before I'd lost interest in that stream of things.
Actually, I did get reacquainted with Greenwald in 2014 with his NSA stuff and that documentary film with Edward Snowdon.
Looking up Scahill, I remember now one of the areas that he was tapped into that was so compelling. It was all the info he was finding about war and finance. Maybe my last hurrah with this style of research was the information he got on Blackwater and its CEO, Erik Prince. I remember reading this book in 2007 . . .
I was talking with a friend of mine in London yesterday about track-and-trace along with other things like it that the US and UK undertook and I remembered one of the places where t&t was a success was New Zealand. With regards to all things COVID, NZ has the benefit of not having a gigantic population.
If you crave more information than a parade of visual memes*, here's the link to the 'Doomsday variant' article in Newsweek that's referenced in an above-posted image.
I'm afraid quite a few people will completely agree with what Johnson is supposed to have said here. These are the anti-lockdown brigade, and those who have been caught filming empty hospital corridors to prove it's all a conspiracy / scam.
They're fine with the collateral damage [i.e. deaths].
New BBC interview with Dominic Cummings further confirms the impression of Boris Johnson that many of us already had...
Johnson had wanted to let Covid "wash through the country" rather than destroy the economy, Cummings said.
Cummings also said the prime minister had messaged him to say: "I no longer buy all this NHS overwhelmed stuff."
(This was prior to the new 'UK' strain escalating at the end of last year, leading to massively rising hospital cases and deaths, and a completely overwhelmed NHS).
"His (Boris Johnson's) attitude at that point was a weird mix of, partly, that it's all nonsense and lockdowns don't work anyway... and, partly, that this is terrible, but, the people who are dying are all over 80, and we can't kill the economy just because of people dying over 80".
"He (Boris Johnson) put his own political interests ahead of people's lives, for sure."
@David interesting. We had Ron Paul, which people my age seemed to love around the time after 11 September, 2001, looking for someone new to hang hopes on. Not many people like his son Rand, though, it seems to me.
- Supermarkets are warning of "massive disruption of food supplies" as number of workers having to self-isolate is rising "exponentially" (after they're notified by NHS app of infected contacts). M&S chief executive says this is "a major issue across every industry at the moment", with general shop opening hours threatened.
(Entirely predictable consequence of Boris Johnson government's policy/insanity).
- BBC cites Sage's Prof Neil Ferguson saying Covid cases in the UK may reach 200,000 a day in the weeks ahead, with "as many as 2,000 daily hospital admissions per day, which would cause major disruption to the NHS".
(Another predictable consequence that experts have been warning of for months).
- England’s easing of all Covid restrictions is threat to world, say 1,200 scientists (and leading government advisors to several countries). International experts say Boris Johnson's ‘unethical experiment’ could allow vaccine-resistant variants to develop.
- Boris Johnson and Chancellor now self-isolating after twice-vaccinated Health Secretary Sajid Javid tested positive for Covid.
The numbers are going back up here in NL too. Mostly due to the Delta-variant being brought back and spread by mainly student/young adults that have travelled abroad. As a high risk person (65, short, fat, ugly 😉) and a misanthrope, I am still very happy to social distance and generally avoid contact with my fellow man of any age.
We had our second shots last week. Unfortunately it was still AstraZeneca. (I figure that we got it because our age group showed the least amount of side-effects. They had to use it on someone.) Seeing that it is the least effective of the vaccines against the original and Delta variants, we will still be wearing masks and taking precautions. Hopefully NL will come around to allowing booster shots in the fall. Unlike other countries, they have been very slow in allowing mixed vaccinations. In fact, they allowed it a week AFTER we had our second shots. Just like they allowed people to pick their vaccine 3 weeks after we got our first shot. Well one must hope for the best mustn't one?
I've read some good things about the AstraZeneca vaccine. I know there's been some bad publicity about it, and the stats on effectiveness typically show it less effective than say the Pfizer vaccine. But it has some advantages in terms of storage, affordability and distribution, apparently. I'm quite happy to have had the AstraZeneca. The Pfizer vaccine equires a storage temperature of minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit and requires special storage equipment and transportation. If I had it, I'd probably be thinking: "Did they manage to store it properly, has it passed it's sell-by date?"
@Palladium In any event, it's a done deal for those of us that received AstraZeneca. So we can only hope that it is effective enough.
I hope that the COVID crisis leads to some sort of breakthrough vaccine technology that will allow rapid and SAFE development of reliable vaccines. I get the feeling that we are going to be needing more of them in the near future. The world can't take going thru this type of crisis regularly. The thought of the 2022 elections is scary enough. (Sorry. I couldn't resist). Add another virus outbreak to that and well...
"The world is looking at us with disbelief".Good piece in the Financial Times on the UK government's insane approach, with hospital admissions in England now "accelerating upwards... and rising as steeply as they did in the last wave".
Most scientists and health experts quoted - virologists, epidemiologists, etc - totally oppose the government's "dangerous", "irresponsible", "criminal" course of action.
The policy is do what will be most popular, or least unpopular. Unfortunately, there are a lot of people who see deaths as better option than loss of business or curtailing their social lives.
@David and @Palladium it's probably very difficult to be in the position he's in because despite the fact that he's already gotten infected, been to hospital, praised the NHS for the treatment and care he received, etc., many in his party are likely telling him that COVID doesn't exist, is a creation of the political left or is no more of a problem than the sniffles or mild influenza.
A letter published in The Lancet today, from over 100 scientists & practitioners, including the Chair of the British Medical Association, accuses the government of "embarking on a dangerous and unethical experiment" in its plan to ease all restrictions on July 19th, just when the pandemic is surging.
The UK Health Secretary has stated that daily cases could reach 100,000 per day over the summer months, but that this is just fine & peachy, because the vaccine has broken the link between infection and death rates.
The scientists disagree, saying that "mass infection is not an option".
“This strategy risks creating a generation left with chronic health problems and disability, the personal and economic impacts of which might be felt for decades to come.”
New UK gov Health Secretary, Sajid David, writes in Daily Mail of "health benefits" of letting the virus rip through the country after proposed "Freedom Day", July 19th, when all restrictions (including mask wearing on public transports) are lifted, "which will make Britain the most open country in Europe".
Are they recklessly insane dangerous morons?, I hear you ask! Reasonable question. Perhaps these graphs can answer:-
The rising in hospital admissions isn't nearly as steep as infections (latter shown in graph), but still on rise. Doesn't fill me with confidence. Bozoland (UK under Chief Clown Johnson) seems in denial, as if worse strains won't arise if we go around saying, "Jolly Japes, Chaps, It's All Roses At Eton"!).
The mood in the US seems to be to be to stop listening to Dr. Fauci, since he lied, to downplay the breakthroughs (COVID catching after full vaccination), to stop the mask wearing because vaccines have won the battle and that Delta, if it’s ever going to be a problem, might or might not show up in low-vaccinated areas
Meanwhile, BBC's Andrew Marr says he got a very nasty case of Covid recently despite being vaccinated twice. The expert he speaks to says this is common.
It's the more aggressive, now-dominant Delta strain. The one which Boris Johnson allowed into the country (to the tune of 20,000 people flying in from India, after the point at which Johnson should have put India on Red List).
I feel like every opening has been premature, including the official one beginning tomorrow in California. How many premature openings have there been in the UK so far? I was shocked when I was told I could now go around mask-free. Still not used to it, although the fresh air is sacred.I get messages from people in other parts of the US telling me that people are hugging in the streets without masks on because of the success of the vaccines. I guess I’m just a Doubting Thomas.
I know what you mean. I would say that although it's been unpredictable in specifics (eg when & where latest mutation will take hold), it has pretty much conformed to even the earliest scientific advice (ie *likelihood* of more infectious and vaccine-resistant strains, speed of airborn transmission, dangers of premature easing of lockdowns, etc).
I confess to feeling deeply irritated by the way large sections of UK media constantly, in effect, make apologies for Johnson's incompetence (not that that's what you're doing). After all, it didn't need to be this way; it wasn't inevitable. Other countries have handled it far better...
"One last heave" - to me that sounds as idiotic and clownish as his "take it on the chin" characterisation of the herd immunity plan. There's nothing final about this pandemic in the short-term. He's setting up unrealistic expectations - as he did from the start, and as he seems to do with everything he addresses.
@Alec To be fair to virus B.1.617.2, it doesn't have a prefrontal cortex with which to evaluate the consistency of its messages. Or to make moral judgments about actions that will lead to death & suffering on a huge scale. 😉
It doesn't even have an Eton education or family friends to rescue its sorry arse after it gets sacked from two jobs for lying!
I'd really love for things to get back to "normal", but, for example, consider latest postings from Dr Zubaida Hague of independent Sage:
"It is MAJOR NEWS for the UK that Public Health England have upgraded the risk from #DeltaVariant (aka #IndianVariant) to *red* in terms of higher transmissibility, more risk of hospitalisation and more vaccine escape than previously thought yet hardly any news outlets covering it".
"Not only has Boris Johnson been misleading the public by maintaining there's 'nothing in the data' to suggest 21 June lockdown easing cannot happen (when evidence about public health risk has been strong), but the risks associated with Delta aka #IndianVariant have got WORSE."
It also seems clear that the UK government has been suppressing data on spread in schools. Recommend following reputable scientific sources rather than latest damage-control PR from disreputable government.
Sign of the times: There is a ten pence piece on the pavement near where I live. Normally, someone would have picked it up within a few days. Its been there for months.
Accidentally posted this in the Look At The State We're In thread, because there was so much COVID related stuff in it.
The India variant (B.1.617.2) has now become the dominant strain of Covid in the UK. It took Boris Johnson *22 days* to add India to the Red List even after the risks became clear. Johnson allowed a dangerous new Covid variant to enter the UK for the sake of a hypothetical trade deal with India.
The Indian variant is estimated by Sage to be 50% more transmissible than the UK variant which rapidly overwhelmed Britain 6 months ago. It's also reportedly more resistant to vaccines than previous strains.
@Palladium I was just looking up information about it. It's now called the delta variant by WHO. Watched something this morning regarding delta in Australia. It is said to be in 60 countries.
It's just another part of the World's continuing spiral downwards...The World's fucked, humanity is broken, we've done our best to destroy everything and there was always going to be a price to pay, this is part of it....Once again, the innocent suffer.
I know what you mean, Tourist. Although, tbh, I see a lot to be optimistic about, even from the pandemic - eg speed of development & distibution of vaccines, renewed appreciation for institutions such as NHS and WHO, a vast amount of people doing heroic work in all kinds of fields. Unfortunately they haven't been in the spotlight like the malign overgrown babies, Orange Bozo & Eton Bozo.
@Palladium I agree with what you say and, although it may not seem it from my above post, I am definitely a glass half full guy and I am optimistic about certain things moving forward..But, it always seems to take some sort of disaster or catastrophe, national or global, before we all start pulling together and show some mutual kindness, love and concern, in general. Then when things get back to some kind of 'normality', we seem, as a species, to drift back to our selfish, uncaring, indifferent ways again, in general...Not everyone ofc, but that seems to be the general gist of things.
If only we could show kindness and love, respect, consideration and care, acceptance etc, as a default setting, everything would be so much better, for everyone, for more time than it wasn't.
..and, totally agree about Johnson and Trump....I heard some quite shocking, but not surprising, comments Johnson allegedly made re the number of casualties Covid had claimed/was claiming and possible government lockdown strategies/the economy etc on the mainstream news the other night, supposedly an insider leak.
India variant spreading in UK. Thought to be more infectious than UK variant (which itself was more infectious than previous strain). Not enough real-world data to know whether new variants show resistance to vaccines.
What IS known: that more mutations are likely where virus is left to run rampant.
Prime Minister Bozo Johnson: "Let's open up football stadiums to fans and continue with loosening of restrictions across the board. How could things possibly get worse than they have been?".
Turkeys leading up to Christmas: "There's no evidence that anything bad will happen to us. These humans have shown us nothing but kindness so far, feeding us everyday from birth, until we're quite plump".
Let's hope the vaccines do continue to work with all the variants.
SF Officials Say It's OK to Be Outside Without a Mask...
"These changes mean fully vaccinated and unvaccinated people can forgo mask-wearing while engaging in outdoor activities such as walking, running, hiking or biking alone or with members of the same household,"
Dr. Philip says. "And, you will no longer need to pull up your mask when simply passing others by on a sidewalk or trail as the transient passing of people is not a risk of transmission. For anyone who is fully vaccinated, a face covering will no longer be required outdoors unless a more specific rule requires it, such as at a large sporting event."
The Warriors victory parade in San Francisco a few days ago, while watching it, I realised it was a 95% maskless event.
You should watch this
Woman wearing flu mask, 1919
Getty Images
Watching a CNN clip from Dr. Sanjay Gupta on NIOSH-approved masks and products.
The new mass-produced masks I see more and more are starting to remind me of these sorts of shapes . . .
Headline from San Francisco Chronicle
You've compelled me to post it again . . .
. . . 'anybody hear of plague in this town . . . '
A most interesting of Bergman's film Sevenrh Seal. Thanks for posting.
It's interesting to see how many UK premier league football clubs have rapidly succumbed to outbreaks of the virus. They already had more restrictions and protective procedures, as there's a massive financial and competitive incentive for keeping their players fit to play. But, still, they are going down like the plague! Let's hope the symptoms of this new wave are relatively mild for most, otherwise, with Boris Johnson following his usual clown-like, incompetent, deaf-to-science, too-little-too-late approach, we tend to look a bit stuffed!
"systematic review and meta analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions has found mask wearing the most effective." - reported in The Guardian.
"Mask-wearing is the single most effective public health measure at tackling Covid, according to the first global study of its kind, which found that the measure was linked to a 53% fall in the incidence of the disease."
"Vaccines are safe and effective and saving lives around the world. But most do not confer 100% protection, most countries have not vaccinated everyone, and it is not yet known if jabs will prevent future transmission of emerging coronavirus variants."
Smirking idiot-clown Boris Johnson interviewed by CNN about his inept handling of COVID:
CNN: "There's a big spike in Covid in this country [UK] and the record here is worse than elsewhere in Europe."
BJ: "I dispute that."
CNN: "The facts and figures show it."
BJ: <mumbles> "...I dispute..."
CNN: "OK shall I read them?"
BJ: "You can read whatever you like."
Self-explanatory graph. (Another figure, reported today, which might seem clearer in absolute terms: 1 in 55 people in England, and 1 in 45 people in Wales had Coronavirus in the week ending 16 October - Office for National Statistics.)
Ah,
but BozzoPooh blah blah blah & the Muppets have taken back control of
the Corona virus and now CV-19 is done ...
Time to go on another all expenses paid holiday - being the Muppet Master
is terribly exhausting
This morning's BBC News website has a tragicomic piece titled: "Covid: Why are UK cases so high?"
It points out what everyone already knows:
-Restrictions were removed when Delta variant was already on ascendant.
-Masks are thus less likely to be worn in UK than in Europe.
-Also mentions that vaccine rollout has stalled in UK. Europe & other countries now rate more highly on full vaccination levels. UK no longer in top 10.
UK is doing worse than European countries - much higher levels of infection.
So, back to that headline: "Covid: Why are UK cases so high?"
That seems to me like asking: "Prime Imbecile driving at 100mph into brick wall - why is the outcome not good for the car?"
Still, at least the article does helpfully point out that "The more virus there is about, the more chances there are for it to break through the defences of vaccines, reach vulnerable people and put pressure on health services." And: "It's true that the more infections are circulating, the higher the risk some people will end up seriously ill, even when most have been vaccinated." Maybe someone should inform Boris "the idiot" Johnson.
There's some good news about Covid in this article that cites Dame Sarah Gilbert, the Oxford vaccine creator. But it's a bit of a mixed bag. The difference from the opinions we're typically exposed to is that it comes from someone who really knows what she's talking about, and not some pundit or dubious "government adviser".
I'm posting whole thing, as you have to register, etc, at the Telegraph to see it all online. It's from a few days ago (link at end):-
Nowhere left for Covid to go to mutate into a deadly variant, says Oxford vaccine creator.
Covid is unlikely to mutate into a much deadlier variant because there “aren’t many places for the virus to go”, the lead scientist behind the Oxford vaccine has said.
Dame Sarah Gilbert said that viruses tended to become less virulent over time as they spread through a population which was becoming more immune.
Although Dame Sarah said some genetic drift was to be expected, she said Covid-19 would eventually become like other seasonal coronaviruses which cause the common cold and respiratory infections.
Speaking on a Royal Society of Medicine webinar about variants on Wednesday, Dame Sarah said: “The virus can’t completely mutate because its spike protein has to interact with the ACE2 receptor on the surface of the human cell, in order to get inside that cell.
“If it changes its spike protein so much that it can’t interact with that receptor, then it’s not going to be able to get inside the cell. So there aren’t very many places for the virus to go to have something that will evade immunity but still be a really infectious virus.”
She added: “We normally see that viruses become less virulent as they circulate more easily and there is no reason to think we will have a more virulent version of Sars-CoV-2.
“We tend to see slow genetic drift of the virus and there will be gradual immunity developing in the population as there is to all the other seasonal coronaviruses. There are four of them and they’ve been circulating for decades and we’re not even aware of them.
“So we already live with four different human coronaviruses that we don’t really ever think about very much and eventually Sars-CoV-2 will become one of those. The question of how long it’s going to take to get there and what measures we’re going to have to take to manage it in the meantime.”
So far, virus variants which looked like they might be more virulent and evade immunity have been out-competed by the delta variant, which is more infectious.
Keeping an eye on beta and lambda variants
Experts are still concerned about the beta and lambda variants, but neither has managed to get a strong foothold in Britain.
Professor Sharon Peacock, the executive director of the Covid-19 UK Genomics Consortium, which monitors variants for the Government, also told the webinar: “It’s watch and wait, but delta is top of the list and other variants are not particularly concerning at the moment.
“It has been pretty quiet since delta emerged and it would be nice to think there won’t be any new variants of concern. If I was pushed to predict, I think there will be new variants emerging over time and I think there is still quite a lot of road to travel down with this virus.”
Prof Sharon Peacock said vaccinating people remains the best way to fight Covid and prevent the emergence of new variants
Prof Peacock said that it was important to genetically sequence people who became ill after travelling to check that new variants were not being imported into Britain as they were the “canary in the coal mine”.
However, she said that vaccinating as many people as possible around the world was the best way to prevent the emergence of worrying mutations.
“If we don’t vaccinate people and there is uncontrolled transmission and infection, then that is the right training ground for the virus to really emerge. That is a real variant of concern,” she added.
“If we don’t have very much infection, then the virus doesn’t have much chance to mutate. So vaccination of the world is not only the morally right thing to do, but the strategically right thing to do if we are going to protect the world. Sequencing travellers are the canary in the coal mine as they will be where new variants are emerging.”
Prof Peacock also said she had not completely ruled out that the virus had been engineered or had leaked from a lab.
“There is reason to think the virus did emerge from an animal host,” she said. “I haven’t seen any definitive evidence it is an engineered virus or escaped. But what this virus has taught me is to be humble when I’m wrong, and I’ve been wrong quite a few times and have had to become nimble in changing my mind.
“So if further evidence comes along that shows the virus as being engineered, I would be willing to consider that. But at the moment, in my view it has arisen from an animal.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/22/nowhere-left-covid-go-mutate-deadly-variant-says-oxford-vaccine/
Something I've seen pretty much every day for who knows how long and yet I've only noticed it today in context . . .
Ralph Pace — California Sea Lion Plays with Mask (World Press Photo, 2021 )
On Biden mandating vaccinations for federal employees, & the hysterical reaction to this from some - it's weird to me that those who complain about having their individual liberties constrained (eg requirement to get vaccinated) seem unconcerned about trampling on the freedoms of others (eg the freedom to not be forced to work with those who pose a greater risk of infection). Liberty for me, me, me, me, and not for others - aka narrow selfishness.
From June of 2020, some interesting mask designs for sale near me. Bought the ape one.
And because of the Sturgis Rally…
.
Interesting reflections and musings from Russell Brand.
'A new congressional report says Covid-19 likely emerged in Wuhan months earlier than originally thought.'
Dumb and Dumber. I'm already on a "criticise Glenn Greenwald" roll in another thread, but there's really no excuse for this, from someone so influential as Glenn.
Firstly, there's no "sustained isolation" (as Greenwald so dishonestly puts it) in NZ because they've been completely Covid-free for the last 6 months, precisely because their precautionary approach has been so effective. (They've had a sum total of only 26 deaths from Covid since the start. Compare that with the US and UK). There's also massive popular support in NZ for the approach taken.
The new temporary NZ lockdown is just 3 days (7 in the area affected) - not "sustained isolation" - and of course they're allowed to talk to their neighbours (that's a stupid mischaracterisation, by Blumenthal and Greenwald, of the usual social distancing advice).
And finally, NZ doesn't have a "President". It has a Prime Minister. A basic fact you'd expect a "journalist" to get right.
Texas Governor Abbot has tested positive for the coronavirus.
Karma.
.
New Zealand has gone into temporary national lockdown after *one* new case of COVID-19 discovered - the first case in six months.
Reasonable or over-reaction? How have strategies faired, comparatively:
Sum total cases, NZ: 2,926 - 1 in every 1,700 people (total deaths: 26)
Sum total cases, UK: 6,322,241 - 1 in every 10 people (total deaths: 131,149)
Ergo: reasonable.
The Virus Trap: Hollow Nano-Objects Made of DNA Could Trap Viruses and Render Them Harmless https://tinyurl.com/yw7efzjv
"Anger as Boris Johnson does not isolate after staffer’s positive Covid test":
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/06/boris-johnson-will-not-isolate-after-staffer-tests-positive-for-covid
If you crave more information than a parade of visual memes*, here's the link to the 'Doomsday variant' article in Newsweek that's referenced in an above-posted image.
* I blame Facebook for this common habit. 🙂
UK leading the world (nearly) on Covid case rates. And not in a good way:
I'm afraid quite a few people will completely agree with what Johnson is supposed to have said here. These are the anti-lockdown brigade, and those who have been caught filming empty hospital corridors to prove it's all a conspiracy / scam.
They're fine with the collateral damage [i.e. deaths].
This could actually bolster Johnson's standing.
New BBC interview with Dominic Cummings further confirms the impression of Boris Johnson that many of us already had...
Johnson had wanted to let Covid "wash through the country" rather than destroy the economy, Cummings said.
Cummings also said the prime minister had messaged him to say: "I no longer buy all this NHS overwhelmed stuff."
(This was prior to the new 'UK' strain escalating at the end of last year, leading to massively rising hospital cases and deaths, and a completely overwhelmed NHS).
"His (Boris Johnson's) attitude at that point was a weird mix of, partly, that it's all nonsense and lockdowns don't work anyway... and, partly, that this is terrible, but, the people who are dying are all over 80, and we can't kill the economy just because of people dying over 80".
"He (Boris Johnson) put his own political interests ahead of people's lives, for sure."
Another apt lyric from The Knife by Genesis:
Some of you are going to die
Martyrs of course to the freedom that I shall provide
Looks like the 4th wave of corona is on its way. The colder months will be worse I believe 😮
Johnson has his first true dilemma. Doing the sensible thing right now would put him at odds with the libertarian element of his fanbase.
But if he doesn't do the right thing, the fallout could be horrendous.
Latest fun* items of note:
- Supermarkets are warning of "massive disruption of food supplies" as number of workers having to self-isolate is rising "exponentially" (after they're notified by NHS app of infected contacts). M&S chief executive says this is "a major issue across every industry at the moment", with general shop opening hours threatened.
(Entirely predictable consequence of Boris Johnson government's policy/insanity).
- BBC cites Sage's Prof Neil Ferguson saying Covid cases in the UK may reach 200,000 a day in the weeks ahead, with "as many as 2,000 daily hospital admissions per day, which would cause major disruption to the NHS".
(Another predictable consequence that experts have been warning of for months).
- England’s easing of all Covid restrictions is threat to world, say 1,200 scientists (and leading government advisors to several countries). International experts say Boris Johnson's ‘unethical experiment’ could allow vaccine-resistant variants to develop.
- Boris Johnson and Chancellor now self-isolating after twice-vaccinated Health Secretary Sajid Javid tested positive for Covid.
*Please excuse my sarcasm.
About something quite different, but some of the lyrics from Hands Clean by Alanis Morissette seem quite apt:
Ooh, this could get messy but
Ooh, you don't seem to mind
Dude, don't go telling everybody
And overlook this supposed crime
We'll fast forward to a few years later
And no one knows except the both of us
I've more than honored your request for silence
And you've washed your hands clean of this
The numbers are going back up here in NL too. Mostly due to the Delta-variant being brought back and spread by mainly student/young adults that have travelled abroad. As a high risk person (65, short, fat, ugly 😉) and a misanthrope, I am still very happy to social distance and generally avoid contact with my fellow man of any age.
We had our second shots last week. Unfortunately it was still AstraZeneca. (I figure that we got it because our age group showed the least amount of side-effects. They had to use it on someone.) Seeing that it is the least effective of the vaccines against the original and Delta variants, we will still be wearing masks and taking precautions. Hopefully NL will come around to allowing booster shots in the fall. Unlike other countries, they have been very slow in allowing mixed vaccinations. In fact, they allowed it a week AFTER we had our second shots. Just like they allowed people to pick their vaccine 3 weeks after we got our first shot. Well one must hope for the best mustn't one?
"The world is looking at us with disbelief". Good piece in the Financial Times on the UK government's insane approach, with hospital admissions in England now "accelerating upwards... and rising as steeply as they did in the last wave".
Most scientists and health experts quoted - virologists, epidemiologists, etc - totally oppose the government's "dangerous", "irresponsible", "criminal" course of action.
A letter published in The Lancet today, from over 100 scientists & practitioners, including the Chair of the British Medical Association, accuses the government of "embarking on a dangerous and unethical experiment" in its plan to ease all restrictions on July 19th, just when the pandemic is surging.
The UK Health Secretary has stated that daily cases could reach 100,000 per day over the summer months, but that this is just fine & peachy, because the vaccine has broken the link between infection and death rates.
The scientists disagree, saying that "mass infection is not an option".
“This strategy risks creating a generation left with chronic health problems and disability, the personal and economic impacts of which might be felt for decades to come.”
[LIVE] Coronavirus Pandemic: Real Time Dashboard, World Maps, Charts, News
Been up since April of 2020, but I only noticed it yesterday.
New UK gov Health Secretary, Sajid David, writes in Daily Mail of "health benefits" of letting the virus rip through the country after proposed "Freedom Day", July 19th, when all restrictions (including mask wearing on public transports) are lifted, "which will make Britain the most open country in Europe".
Are they recklessly insane dangerous morons?, I hear you ask! Reasonable question. Perhaps these graphs can answer:-
The rising in hospital admissions isn't nearly as steep as infections (latter shown in graph), but still on rise. Doesn't fill me with confidence. Bozoland (UK under Chief Clown Johnson) seems in denial, as if worse strains won't arise if we go around saying, "Jolly Japes, Chaps, It's All Roses At Eton"!).
The mood in the US seems to be to be to stop listening to Dr. Fauci, since he lied, to downplay the breakthroughs (COVID catching after full vaccination), to stop the mask wearing because vaccines have won the battle and that Delta, if it’s ever going to be a problem, might or might not show up in low-vaccinated areas
Meanwhile, BBC's Andrew Marr says he got a very nasty case of Covid recently despite being vaccinated twice. The expert he speaks to says this is common.
It's the more aggressive, now-dominant Delta strain. The one which Boris Johnson allowed into the country (to the tune of 20,000 people flying in from India, after the point at which Johnson should have put India on Red List).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-57628287
http://www.backstreets.com/news.html
Broadway opens.
I do hope Boris Johnson's unfortunate bride made him sign a watertight prenuptial contract.
I feel like every opening has been premature, including the official one beginning tomorrow in California. How many premature openings have there been in the UK so far? I was shocked when I was told I could now go around mask-free. Still not used to it, although the fresh air is sacred. I get messages from people in other parts of the US telling me that people are hugging in the streets without masks on because of the success of the vaccines. I guess I’m just a Doubting Thomas.
Point taken. The virus and its variants are unpredictable so the world leaders are having a difficult time coming up with upbeat slogans for us.
Boris Johnson to plead for "one last heave to freedom" as he delays further loosening of restrictions.
"One last heave" - to me that sounds as idiotic and clownish as his "take it on the chin" characterisation of the herd immunity plan. There's nothing final about this pandemic in the short-term. He's setting up unrealistic expectations - as he did from the start, and as he seems to do with everything he addresses.
I'd really love for things to get back to "normal", but, for example, consider latest postings from Dr Zubaida Hague of independent Sage:
"It is MAJOR NEWS for the UK that Public Health England have upgraded the risk from #DeltaVariant (aka #IndianVariant) to *red* in terms of higher transmissibility, more risk of hospitalisation and more vaccine escape than previously thought yet hardly any news outlets covering it".
"Not only has Boris Johnson been misleading the public by maintaining there's 'nothing in the data' to suggest 21 June lockdown easing cannot happen (when evidence about public health risk has been strong), but the risks associated with Delta aka #IndianVariant have got WORSE."
It also seems clear that the UK government has been suppressing data on spread in schools. Recommend following reputable scientific sources rather than latest damage-control PR from disreputable government.
Sign of the times: There is a ten pence piece on the pavement near where I live. Normally, someone would have picked it up within a few days. Its been there for months.
Accidentally posted this in the Look At The State We're In thread, because there was so much COVID related stuff in it.
The India variant (B.1.617.2) has now become the dominant strain of Covid in the UK. It took Boris Johnson *22 days* to add India to the Red List even after the risks became clear. Johnson allowed a dangerous new Covid variant to enter the UK for the sake of a hypothetical trade deal with India.
The Indian variant is estimated by Sage to be 50% more transmissible than the UK variant which rapidly overwhelmed Britain 6 months ago. It's also reportedly more resistant to vaccines than previous strains.
History continues to repeat itself. We all should be good, in time. I believe, hopefully 😊😊👍👍.
It's just another part of the World's continuing spiral downwards...The World's fucked, humanity is broken, we've done our best to destroy everything and there was always going to be a price to pay, this is part of it....Once again, the innocent suffer.
India variant spreading in UK. Thought to be more infectious than UK variant (which itself was more infectious than previous strain). Not enough real-world data to know whether new variants show resistance to vaccines.
What IS known: that more mutations are likely where virus is left to run rampant.
Prime Minister Bozo Johnson: "Let's open up football stadiums to fans and continue with loosening of restrictions across the board. How could things possibly get worse than they have been?".
Turkeys leading up to Christmas: "There's no evidence that anything bad will happen to us. These humans have shown us nothing but kindness so far, feeding us everyday from birth, until we're quite plump".
Let's hope the vaccines do continue to work with all the variants.
Bill Maher testing positive despite being fully vaccinated caused me to learn a COVID-related word: Breakthrough.
SF Officials Say It's OK to Be Outside Without a Mask...
"These changes mean fully vaccinated and unvaccinated people can forgo mask-wearing while engaging in outdoor activities such as walking, running, hiking or biking alone or with members of the same household,"
Dr. Philip says. "And, you will no longer need to pull up your mask when simply passing others by on a sidewalk or trail as the transient passing of people is not a risk of transmission. For anyone who is fully vaccinated, a face covering will no longer be required outdoors unless a more specific rule requires it, such as at a large sporting event."
https://sfist.com/2021/05/04/a-week-later-sf-officials-say-its-ok-to-be-outside-without-a-mask-if-youre-vaccinated/?s=09
I still would ...
Family during the 1918 pandemic.
.